Qrb 501 Week 3 Individual Assignment Forecasting With Indices

Seasonal Demand for Summer Highs Name QRB 501 February 27, 2012 Terry Feravich Seasonal Demand for Summer Highs A common practice among businesses is to gather relevant data to evaluate how well a business is doing, what areas need improvement, and what changes the business may expect in the near future (StockCharts, 2012). However, attempting to make decisions and conclusions with the basis on raw data, for example inventory numbers by month or for the past few years, may prove to be difficult because of variances. The University of Phoenix data and chart below shows the yearly indices for the summer data with many fluctuations, creating difficulties when trying to deduce any valuable information (University of Phoenix Material). Indexes are a tool to assemble data in a more useable way, in this case the information depicts forecast on inventory for the next year. Seasonal Demand for Summer Highs MonthYear 1Year 2Year 3Year 4AverageMonthly Index118,00045,10059,80035,500396000.935087935219,80046,53030,74051,250370800.875582339315,70022,10047,80034,400300000.708399951453,60041,35073,89068,000592101.39814537583,20046,00060,20068,100643751.520108228672,90041,80055,20061,100577501.363669905755,20039,80032,18062,300473701.118563522857,35064,10038,60066,50056637.51.337400074915,40047,60025,02031,400298550.7049760181027,70043,05051,30036,50039637.50.9359734351121,40039,30031,79016,80027322.50.6451752551217,10010,30031,10018,900193500.456917968Avg.38112.540585.8333344801.6666745895.8333342348.95833Total457,350487,030537,620550,750 Monthly IndexMonthly Forecast for Next Year0.93508793546041.859750.87558233943111.923220.70839995134880.196781.3981453768841.881711.52010822874847.088921.36366990567144.37881.11856352255075.830711.33740007465850.904830.70497601834711.609160.93597343546085.459990.64517525531767.139220.45691796822497.72692 Year Total138112.5240585.83333344801.66667445895.83333Trendline Equation y 33079 x 425490Forecast for year - 5 49238 The graphs above represents the average index calculation in class representing the first four years based on year one of the summer data as the base year (University