Nestle Demand Forecast Assignment - Using The Bases Model

Demand Forecast – Pizza and ToppingTrial RateDefinitely buy17%Probably buy59%Industry Rule of ThumbDefinites actually buy50%Probables actually buy50%Adjusted Trial Rate38%Market Plan AdjustmentOverall awareness37%ACV58%Trial Rate8.15%Target HouseholdsI Unit at trial77.4 million6.31 MMTrial HouseholdsRepeat Rate# Repeat Purchase OccasionsAvg. Repeat transaction amount 2.8 MM Units(77.4)(8.15%) = 6.31MM22%2.01.0 Demand Forecast – Pizza onlyTrial RateDefinitely buy15%Probably buy43%Industry Rule of ThumbDefinites actually buy50%Probables actually buy50%Adjusted Trial Rate29%Market Plan AdjustmentOverall awareness37%ACV58%Trial Rate6.22%Target HouseholdsI Unit at trial77.4 million4.82 MMTrial HouseholdsRepeat Rate# Repeat Purchase OccasionsAvg. Repeat transaction amount 2.1 MM Units(77.4)(6.22%) =4.82 MM22%2.01.0 The expected revenue in million dollars is given below:The expected revenue In million $Pizza & Topping350.44Pizza only218.45Based on the metric used by Nestle, we can go with this demand forecast.Sensitivity Analysis:Pizza & ToppingTrial RateDefinitely buy17%Probably buy59%<span